The percentage of UK small business owners predicting growth (33%) has dipped to a nine-month low, according to the latest quarterly data from Novuna Business Finance. Whilst 45% see Q1 as a standstill period, there is a four-year high in the percentage of small businesses saying they will contract by the end of March (13%) and the percentage of enterprises that fear closure in the next three months has hit a two-year peak (8%).
The findings are from Novuna Business Finance’s Business Barometer study, which has tracked the growth forecasts of more than 1,000 small business owners every quarter for the last 11 years. Following the Bank of England cutting interest rates and reducing its economic growth forecasts for 2025, the new Novuna Business Finance data reveals that UK small business owners are already gearing up for contraction, with major falls in growth forecasts already registered across many key regions – where there has been abrupt change since the start of 2025.
