The percentage of UK small businesses predicting growth has fallen to a four-year low (29%) – with significant falls in the manufacturing, construction and retail sectors – according to new figures from Novuna Business Finance. Nationally, growth outlook now stands at its lowest level since Q1 2021 (26%), and – if the first lockdown periods are taken out the equation – it is the first quarter in 11 years when the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen below 30%.
The current position stands in stark contrast to last summer, when the ‘election bounce’ of a new government saw an immediate upturn in small business confidence, as 35% predicted growth. Two budgets later and with tariff chaos gripping the economy – small business forecasts are falling to a new low.
The research findings are the latest from Novuna Business Finance’s Business Barometer study, which has tracked the percentage of small business owners that predict growth every quarter for the last 11 years.
